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Counteroffer Calculator

Counter vs. new offer on comp, commute, and the odds the counter fails.

PrivateFreeSourcedReviewed

The new offer wins by (risk-adjusted, 36 mo)

Take the new offer

$74,955

Counter — expected value
$413,793

$141,872/yr after tax & commute

New offer — expected value
$488,748

$158,916/yr after tax & commute

Commute time swing
−72 hr/yr

the new job gives time back

On paper the new offer is +$19,000/yr vs the counter. After tax, commute, and counteroffer risk, its expected value over 36 months is +$74,955 ahead of accepting the counter.

Try a what-if

Risk & horizon

50%

12 mo

36 mo

Recruiters widely cite that ~80% of people who accept a counteroffer leave within six months, and up to 9 in 10 within a year — figures that are repeated everywhere but rarely well-sourced, so treat them as a strong caution, not gospel. The raise seldom fixes why you were looking, and your loyalty is now in question. Adjust the probability to match your honest read of your own situation.

Commute & time50 → 20 min, 3 days/wk · time $40/hr

50 min

20 min

3 days

$40

$12

$6

Search gap, switching cost & tax2 mo gap · $2,000 to switch · 30% tax

2 mo

$2,000

30%

The three packages (annual)

Current (today)

$185,000

$150,000

$15,000

$20,000

Counteroffer

$212,000

$170,000

$17,000

$25,000

New offer

$231,000

$178,000

$18,000

$35,000

$20,000

Educational tool, not career or financial advice. The money is only half the decision. A counteroffer almost never fixes the reasons people actually leave — manager, growth, burnout, culture. If those drove your search, weight the non-money side heavily even when the dollars are close. Equity is compared as an annual grant value; when forfeited unvested equity is the real issue, use the Golden Handcuffs calculator.

Next steps

The Counteroffer Calculator settles the money side of one of the most stressful career decisions there is: your employer has made a counteroffer to keep you, and a new company has an offer on the table. Generic 'offer comparison' tools stop at total comp, but a counteroffer is a special case because of one well-documented fact — a large share of people who accept a counteroffer are gone within 6 to 24 months. The raise rarely fixes why you were looking, and accepting it can quietly mark you as a flight risk. So the right comparison isn't just 'which number is bigger.' This tool computes total comp for the counter and the offer, converts both to after-tax dollars, subtracts the true cost of each commute (your time and transit cost), and then weights the counter by the probability it 'fails' — leaving you back on the market having forfeited the offer in front of you. It even solves for the break-even failure rate: the exact probability at which accepting the counter stops being the better bet, so you can check it against your honest read of your own manager and situation.

How this calculator works

  1. Enter your current pay, the counteroffer, and the new offer — base, target bonus, and annual equity for each, plus any sign-on the new offer includes.
  2. Add the commute for your current job and the new job (round-trip minutes), how many days a week you'd be in the office, what your time is worth per hour, and the daily transit cost of each.
  3. Set the counteroffer risk: the chance the counter 'fails' (you leave or are let go) within a window of months, and the job-search gap you'd face if it does.
  4. Set your marginal tax rate, any one-time switching cost, and your decision horizon.
  5. Read the verdict: the raw annual gap, each path's after-tax value net of commute, the risk-adjusted expected value over your horizon, and the break-even failure rate at which the counter stops winning.

EV(offer) = net_new × H + signon − switch_cost p_H = p × min(1, H / m) EV(counter) = (1−p_H)·[net_co × H] + p_H·[net_co × (H − lost)] break-even p* solves EV(counter) = EV(offer)

Each option is reduced to an after-tax monthly cash flow net of its commute cost. Taking the offer is valued over the full horizon plus sign-on, less one-time switching cost. Accepting the counter is an expected value. The counter fails with probability p at some point in the m-month risk window, with the failure month spread evenly across the window. If the window runs past your horizon, only the part inside the horizon counts: the chance it fails within the horizon is p × H / m (a 90% risk within 48 months on a 36-month horizon is a 67.5% risk within the horizon). Because you've already declined the external offer, a failure means sitting out a search gap and landing back at counter-level comp — so it costs `gap` months of pay, or less if it happens so close to the end of the horizon that fewer months are left (`lost` is that expected loss). Because EV(counter) is linear in p, the tool solves directly for the break-even failure rate p* — the single number that decides it.

net_co, net_new
After-tax monthly comp net of commute, for counter / new offer
H
Decision horizon in months
p
Probability the counteroffer fails within the risk window
m
Risk window (months) the failure probability applies to
gap
Job-search gap (months at ~$0) if the counter fails
p_H, lost
Chance of failing inside the horizon, and the expected months of pay a failure costs (≤ gap)
p*
Break-even failure rate where the two paths tie

Frequently asked questions

Should I accept a counteroffer?

Usually only if the money clearly wins AND a raise actually addresses why you were looking. Recruiters and surveys have long observed that a majority of people who accept a counteroffer leave or are let go within 6–24 months: the counter rarely fixes the manager, growth, or burnout issues that drove the search, and it can mark you as a flight risk. This calculator quantifies the trade-off — it compares the counter and the offer on after-tax pay and commute, then discounts the counter by the probability it 'fails,' and tells you the break-even failure rate at which staying is no longer the better bet.

Why do most counteroffers fail?

Recruiters widely cite that roughly 80% of people who accept a counteroffer leave within six months, and as many as 9 in 10 are gone within a year — figures repeated across the industry, though the original studies are old and rarely sourced, so treat them as a strong caution, not a law. The reasons are consistent: money is rarely the real reason people leave, so once the raise's novelty fades the original problems (manager, role, culture, growth) remain; accepting a counter signals you were interviewing, which can quietly cost you trust, projects, and promotions; and the counter is often a stopgap that buys the employer time to find your replacement. Because the exact rate is debated, this calculator lets you set the failure probability yourself and shows how sensitive the decision is to it — including the break-even rate where accepting the counter stops being worth it.

How do I compare a counteroffer to a job offer?

Don't just compare base salaries. Add bonus and annual equity to get total comp for each, convert to after-tax dollars at your marginal rate, then subtract the real cost of each commute (your time, valued per hour, plus transit cost). That gives you the honest annual difference. Finally, weight the counter by counteroffer risk: if there's a meaningful chance you're job-searching again within a year, the counter's near-term raise is temporary and you've forfeited the offer in front of you. This calculator does all of that and surfaces the expected value of each path over your chosen horizon.

How much should I value my commute when comparing jobs?

Commute is real, recurring, unpaid cost. Multiply the round-trip minutes by your in-office days per week and 48 working weeks to get annual commuting hours, then value those hours at what your time is worth to you (a common rule of thumb is your after-tax hourly wage, but use whatever reflects your life). Add the direct cost — gas, tolls, parking, or transit fares per day. A job that pays $5,000 more but adds 30 minutes each way, three days a week, can easily erase that raise once you price the lost time. This tool builds the commute difference into both options automatically.

What is the break-even counteroffer failure rate?

It's the probability of the counter 'failing' (you leaving or being let go within the risk window) at which the counter and the new offer have equal expected value. Below that probability, staying on the counter is the better financial bet; above it, taking the offer wins. The calculator solves for this number from your inputs, so instead of guessing whether 'most counteroffers fail,' you can compare the tool's break-even rate to your honest read of your own situation — a supportive manager and a real fix make a low failure rate believable; a band-aid raise does not.

Sources used in this calculator

This calculator uses only the numbers you enter — no outside rates or tables. The formula it applies is shown above.

Reviewed by the Money Scale editorial team. How we source our data

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