Tax Return Estimator
Estimate your federal + state refund or balance due (estimator only).
Estimator only — not a tax return. Standard deduction, brackets, FICA and the Child Tax Credit only. What it doesn't model
Estimated total refund · 2026 tax year
Refund+$4,855
- Federal
- +$4,550
- State (CA)
- +$305
- Effective rate
- 20.3%
refund
refund
22% marginal
You've had about $4,855 more withheld than your estimated 2026 tax — that comes back as a refund. A big refund is an interest-free loan to the IRS; a smaller W-4 withholding puts it in your paychecks instead.
Try a what-if
How the estimate adds up
- Adjusted gross income (AGI)
- $74,000
- Taxable income
- $57,900
- Marginal rate
- 22%
- Effective rate (all taxes)
- 20.3%
Your numbers
Filing status
$80,000
$12,000
$3,000
Pre-tax savings & children$6,000 401(k)/IRA · $0 HSA · 0 children
$6,000
CA doesn't recognize HSAs — this lowers your federal tax only; CA still taxes it.
$0
0 qualifying children
Estimator only — not a tax return
This tool is an educational estimator. It uses the standard deduction, federal brackets, basic state tax, FICA, and the Child Tax Credit. It does NOT model itemized deductions, AMT, EITC, education credits, dependent-care credit, the QBI deduction, capital gains preferences, self-employment income, business income, or many other situations that affect a real return.
Hire a tax professional (CPA or Enrolled Agent) or use full tax software (TurboTax, FreeTaxUSA, H&R Block) to prepare your actual return. You are responsible for your tax filing and any tax owed. Money Scale cannot be held accountable for tax positions, refunds, payments, or penalties resulting from use of this estimator.
Next steps
The Tax Return Estimator gives a rough 2026 federal + state refund (or balance due) estimate using wages, withholdings, pre-tax retirement contributions, HSA contributions, and the Child Tax Credit. STRICTLY a directional educational tool — does NOT model itemized deductions, AMT, EITC, education credits, dependent-care credit, the QBI deduction, capital gains preferences, or self-employment income. Use a CPA or tax software for your actual filing.
How this calculator works
- Select your filing status (single, MFJ, or HoH) and your state of residence.
- Enter wages from W-2 Box 1, and federal/state taxes already withheld (Boxes 2 and 17).
- Add pre-tax 401(k), 403(b), or Traditional IRA contributions (these reduce AGI).
- Add HSA contributions (also AGI-reducing for federal tax; California and New Jersey add them back for state tax). In a state with no income tax, state withholding and the state refund are zero.
- Enter the number of qualifying children under 17 (for the Child Tax Credit).
- Read the estimate. Then take it to a tax professional or full tax software (TurboTax, FreeTaxUSA, H&R Block) for the actual filing.
AGI = wages − pre_tax − HSA tax = bracket_tax(AGI, filing_status) − Child_Tax_Credit refund = withholding − taxStandard simplified federal return. Compute AGI by subtracting pre-tax deductions from wages. Apply the progressive bracket schedule for the filing status. Subtract the Child Tax Credit ($2,200 per qualifying child under 17 for 2026, phased out above $200K single / $400K MFJ). Refund or balance due is withholding minus tax owed. State follows the same basic shape with state-specific brackets.
- AGI
- Adjusted Gross Income (the starting point for federal tax)
- wages
- W-2 Box 1 wages
- pre_tax
- Pre-tax 401(k), 403(b), Traditional IRA contributions
- HSA
- HSA contributions (tax-deductible)
- bracket_tax
- Progressive bracket schedule for the filing status (IRS Rev. Proc.)
- Child_Tax_Credit
- $2,200 per qualifying child under 17 (2026), with high-income phase-out
- withholding
- Federal income tax already withheld this year (W-2 Box 2)
Frequently asked questions
Is this an actual tax return?
No. This is a rough estimator for educational purposes only. It uses the standard deduction, basic Child Tax Credit, and current federal + state brackets. It does NOT model itemized deductions, the QBI deduction, AMT, EITC, education credits, self-employment income, capital gains preferences, or many other tax situations. Use a CPA or tax software (TurboTax, FreeTaxUSA) for your actual return.
Why does the estimate differ from my actual refund?
Many possible reasons: itemized deductions, additional income (1099s, capital gains, dividends), credits the estimator doesn't model (EITC, AOTC, saver's credit, dependent care), state-specific deductions, AMT, or simply rounding. This calculator is a directional sanity check, not a tax return.
Can I rely on this for my actual tax planning?
No. Tax law is complex and changes annually. For real tax planning (withholding adjustments, estimated payments, large-deduction strategies, retirement-vs-Roth decisions, capital-gain harvesting), consult a qualified tax professional. We are not tax advisors and cannot be held responsible for tax outcomes based on this tool.
Sources used in this calculator
- IRS — Tax inflation adjustments for tax year 2026 (Rev. Proc. 2025-32)Federal brackets and standard deduction(opens in a new tab)
- Social Security Administration — Contribution and benefit base2026 Social Security wage base for FICA / SE tax(opens in a new tab)
- Tax Foundation — State individual income tax rates, 2026State income tax brackets (California: FTB 2025 schedule, standard deduction and exemption credit — the latest published)(opens in a new tab)
Reviewed by the Money Scale editorial team. How we source our data
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